EUR/USD Forecast - June 09 2014 Should Continue To Upside

EUR/USD did not move a lot after NFP data failed to ignite a new move. ("After almost a month of lethargy we finally got some action in EUR/USD. After the ECB interest rate decision EUR/USD dipped down to the low 1.35s. It did not stay there for long, rallied again and closed higher for the day. A look at the daily chart shows the huge reversal candle. A similar one (to the downside) we had seen early in May, on the day of the previous ECB announcement. A 400 pip drop followed after that candle. We could see a similar move again, but this time in the other direction. In any case – yesterday’s price action was bullish and after some form of consolidation (technical retracement) EUR/USD should continue to the upside. The main focus today is the nonfarm payrolls report from the US.")

Non-farm payroll data was in-line with expectations on Friday and did not bring any new impulse. Today there is no major economic data from the euro zone (apart from the sentix consumer sentiment index) so we expect a rather quiet start into the new week of trading. It is likely that the single currency will bounce between the high (red box) and the low (green box) of Friday – we do not expect a major breakout either way. After the bullish reversal day from last Thursday we are overall bullish for the pair and sooner or later (not today) expect another stronger rally attempt towards 1.37 and beyond.
EURUSD 1h Technical Analysis 

EURUSD Forecast: range narrowing ahead of ECB

EUR/USD saw a few swings within the trading range as discussed. ("The pair saw another move lower yesterday but we did not get any follow through to the downside. It seems that traders are not overly eager to put up new positions ahead of the ECB decision tomorrow. Bargain hunters stepped in and pushed the pair higher towards 1.3650 but of course: no follow through. We expect this “game” to continue and expect a trading range in between 1.3650 and 1.3590 for Wednesday. The ADP employment report due this afternoon could provide for a bit of a catalyst for a somewhat larger move as it is often a good indicator for Friday`s non-farm payroll data. If you want to trade the EUR/USD today we recommend buying near support (green) and selling near resistance (red). Trend followers should stay sidelined until we see a break out of the above mentioned range.")

EUR/USD saw a few bounces and steep drops on Wednesday. All remained within the recent trading range between 1.3650 and 1.3590. Every bounce was sold and every drop was bought. Macro data could not create any lasting trend. The game will finally come to an end today: It is Draghi time! We do not want to speculate on any action by the ECB, the chart picture does not really help as well. The trend is down and many speculate on a further drop in the single currency but if the ECB does not deliver new measures we could see a huge short covering rally. It is probably best to stay sidelined and wait until the dust has settled. Retail sales from the euro zone at 11 pm CET will not have much of an impact today as the eyes are on the ECB.
EURUSD 1h Technical Analysis 

GOLD Forecast - market participants are awaiting for the ECB decision

Gold managed to break above its 50 period hourly moving average following two days of consolidation. The picture on it is pretty simple; market participants are awaiting for the ECB decision that will be taken tomorrow. Risk aversion, and investors waiting after a major risk event are the main reason for this consolidation.

Gold should find some direction this afternoon with the release of the ADP figures. If the latest shows an improvement, the price could resume it’s down trending move for the day at least with a target of 1238.6. Otherwise, to the upside the next resistance will be found at 1251.7$.
GOLD 1h Technical Analysis

EURUSD: Expect Range-bound Trading Ahead Of ECB

EUR/USD tested again last Friday's low at 1.3588 on Tuesday. ("Mondays price action shows that the EUR bears are still in control. Every small bounce was sold immediately. This will probably not change until we know the outcome of Thursdays ECB meeting. We expect new lows below the last week`s low of 1.3588 – anything else would be a surprise. Traders should stay away from long positions for the moment. Only a move back above 1.3650 and 1.3730 can negate the bearish scenario with new lows ahead of the ECB. Watch CPI flash estimate data for the euro zone at 11 am CET – this could be the catalyst for another leg lower.")

The pair saw another move lower yesterday but we did not get any follow through to the downside. It seems that traders are not overly eager to put up new positions ahead of the ECB decision tomorrow. Bargain hunters stepped in and pushed the pair higher towards 1.3650 but of course: no follow through. We expect this “game” to continue and expect a trading range in between 1.3650 and 1.3590 for Wednesday. The ADP employment report due this afternoon could provide for a bit of a catalyst for a somewhat larger move as it is often a good indicator for Friday`s non-farm payroll data. If you want to trade the EUR/USD today we recommend buying near support (green) and selling near resistance (red). Trend followers should stay sidelined until we see a break out of the above mentioned range.
EURUSD Technical Analysis Chart

GOLD Forecast - June 03 2014: MA50 Acting As A Resistance

Gold drop slowed down since the beginning of the week as we can see on the chart. The price is consolidating since yesterday and remains confined in a 13$ range between 1238.6$ support and 1251.7$ resistance line. The price action shows a smoothed downward move letting traders think about a probable reversal, however, the big picture remains bearish and the 50 periods moving average in the hourly time frame is holding firm despite being currently challenged by the price.

As long as the 50 periods MA is not taken out, the bearish trend remains intact and we can expect the price to reach the 1238.6$ support line as a first target for the day. In case of a downward acceleration it could reach 1230.3$. The second level is not to be excluded given the current deflationist pressure on the Gold price. In case of an upward breakout of this MA level, the first resistance level is located at 1251.7$ and then we see another strong resistance zone between 1257.3$ - 1260.6$.

USDJPY Forecast June 3 2014: More Upside Action Ahead

We saw USD/JPY trading higher again on Monday, the expected consolidation of Friday`s rally did not materialize. ("USD/JPY crawled higher towards key horizontal resistance in the 102.10 area. The pair is heavily overbought in the short term, from a technical perspective we would expect some form of consolidative action kicking in here today. It is likely that USD/JPY spends most of the time on Monday trading sideways/ slightly lower as traders take some profits off the table after the strong advance from 101.44. Following that expected technical correction we could see another leg higher tomorrow. Key support in the short term is 101.80, key resistance 102.10 yen.")

The Japanese yen remained very weak on Monday; USD/JPY continued its advance without looking back. The neckline of the inverse head and shoulders pattern was surpassed on Monday – this is a bullish sign. The target of that bottoming formation is in the 102.80:103.00 area. Traders should prefer long positions into technical corrections in the pair – the short term trend is clearly up. This will very likely not change until we get the non-farm payroll figures from the US on Friday. Key support for today is 102.15 and 102.00; resistance is the 102.50 level.

EURUSD Forecast June 3 2014: Bears Remain In Control

EUR/USD tested the 1.3600 support on Monday, there were no major swings either side. ("This morning after below consensus CPI data from Saxony in Germany we see lower levels again in EUR/USD. A look at the 2 hour chart shows a re-test of the strong support level in the 1.3600:10 area. If this level holds on an hourly closing basis we could see a recovery again from near current levels back up towards 1.3630:40, potentially even higher. While we do not expect any stronger rally ahead of the ECB meeting on Thursday we are short term bullish against support at 1.3600 and 1.3588. Intraday traders should prefer the long side of the market as we anticipate a re-test of last week’s high.")

Monday`s price action shows that the EUR bears are still in control. Every small bounce was sold immediately. This will probably not change until we know the outcome of Thursday's ECB meeting. We expect new lows below the last week's low of 1.3588 – anything else would be a surprise. Traders should stay away from long positions for the moment. Only a move back above 1.3650 and 1.3730 can negate the bearish scenario with new lows ahead of the ECB. Watch CPI flash estimate data for the euro zone at 11 am CET – this could be the catalyst for another leg lower.
Trade Recommendation: 
Entry @ 1.3609
Stop @ 1.3652

Target @ 1.3547